Ahmad Zia Saraj, the former head of the National Directorate of Security under Afghanistan’s republican government, has stated in an article that signs of the end of the Taliban’s second period of rule are becoming increasingly apparent, driven by growing activities of opposition groups, economic difficulties, unemployment, and mounting regional security pressures.
In his article on the fifth year of Taliban rule, Saraj writes that the recent attack by the Afghanistan Freedom Front in Badakhshan, which followed the temporary capture of Yaftal District by a new local group known as the “National Heroes” on July 17, 2026, and resulted in the seizure of parts of Zebak District in Badakhshan, demonstrates that the perception of the Taliban as an invincible force is more myth than reality.
In his view, the continuation of severe economic conditions could encourage some individuals to organize independent actions against the Taliban or join armed resistance.
Saraj argues that people naturally exercise fear and caution when considering protests against a harsh regime that is not committed to the rule of law and whose forces are permitted to carry out killings outside the bounds of the law.
However, according to the author, if people reach the conclusion that poverty will ultimately destroy their lives, many of their fears may disappear when they decide to take action to change their circumstances.
He further states that increased activity by opposition groups will place significant additional pressure on the Taliban to maintain and operate heavy weapons and military equipment.
Many of the helicopters and transport aircraft left behind by Afghanistan’s former government require major repairs to return to full operational capacity. Budget shortages in critical areas have caused a large portion of this equipment to become inoperable, while maintaining the remaining assets is becoming increasingly difficult.
Likewise, many of the small arms left behind by the former government have either been stolen from military stockpiles, sold on the black market, or smuggled out of Afghanistan.
Saraj writes that the Taliban mistakenly believed that, following the signing of an agreement with Russia in May 2026, they would receive free assistance to repair heavy equipment and restore aging aircraft. It soon became clear to them, however, that they would have to cover the substantial costs of these repairs themselves.
According to several credible reports, a limited number of Taliban helicopters and transport aircraft may become inoperable next year due to a lack of financial resources and insufficient maintenance capacity.
Writer:Saeed Sameer
