Asif Durrani, Pakistan’s former special representative for Afghanistan, has warned that Moscow and New Delhi’s expanding political ties with the Taliban could affect the region’s security and political dynamics and heighten Islamabad’s concerns over the activities of militant groups operating in Afghanistan.
In an analytical article, Durrani wrote that the so-called “Moscow Format,” which was initially established to help achieve a political settlement in Afghanistan and address the security concerns of regional countries, has gradually shifted towards closer political engagement with the Taliban administration.
Referring to the format’s meeting on October 5, Durrani said disagreements between the Afghan and Pakistani delegations, as well as the failure to issue a joint statement after the meeting, reflected serious differences over Afghanistan’s security commitments.
According to Durrani, the Taliban objected to a provision in the proposed joint statement that emphasised preventing terrorist activities from Afghan territory and Afghanistan’s responsibility for the security of neighbouring countries. He noted that the issue was not new and had also been addressed in previous statements. The Taliban’s opposition to language they had previously accepted, he argued, raises questions about the group’s willingness to address regional security concerns.
The former Pakistani envoy also pointed to remarks by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov describing the Taliban administration as a “national government,” interpreting them as a sign of a shift in Moscow’s position. According to Durrani, Russia became the first country to recognise the Taliban government in July 2025.
Durrani argued that the key question is no longer whether Russia will maintain relations with the Taliban, but rather how far Moscow is prepared to go in providing practical support to strengthen the group’s government.
In his analysis, he also highlighted India’s growing diplomatic presence and activities in Afghanistan since the Taliban returned to power, noting that New Delhi has expanded its political engagement with the group in recent years.
Durrani claimed that Pakistan has long accused India of providing financial support to Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Balochistan Liberation Army. India has denied these allegations.
In his view, if Russia and India, each pursuing its own strategic objectives, provide the Taliban with greater political legitimacy and broader opportunities for international engagement, the group’s leaders may conclude that they face less pressure and have less incentive to address Pakistan’s security concerns.
Durrani said Russia was aware of the presence of militant groups in Afghanistan, including Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), al-Qaeda, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and the East Turkestan Islamic Movement. He added that Moscow was also aware of the potential consequences of these groups’ activities for the security of Central Asia.
According to Durrani, reports by the United Nations Security Council and other international bodies have confirmed the presence of militant groups in Afghanistan. Nevertheless, he argued, Moscow has so far refrained from using scrutiny of the Taliban’s counterterrorism efforts as a major instrument of political pressure.
The former Pakistani official also referred to the trilateral meeting between Pakistan, China and Afghanistan in August 2025. He said the Taliban opposed wording at that meeting that they had previously accepted in the joint statement issued following the 2023 Islamabad meeting.
Durrani believes the Taliban want to benefit from regional relations and diplomatic engagement while resisting commitments that would place specific security and political responsibilities on them.
He warned that if the Taliban refrain from taking action against militant groups hostile to Pakistan, particularly Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, while Russia and India simultaneously increase their political support for Kabul, Islamabad will be compelled to reassess its calculations and policies towards Afghanistan.
According to Durrani, Moscow’s changing approach towards the Taliban could have implications extending well beyond bilateral relations, potentially reshaping the broader regional political and diplomatic balance concerning Afghanistan.
Writer:Roya Stanikzai
