According to U.S. intelligence assessments, the Islamic Republic is rebuilding its military and industrial infrastructure faster than previously expected and has also resumed part of its drone production.
Two sources familiar with U.S. intelligence assessments told CNN on Thursday, May 21, that during the six-week ceasefire that began in early April, the Iranian government restarted part of its drone production lines. According to these sources, the move indicates that Tehran is rapidly restoring some of the military capabilities damaged in U.S. and Israeli strikes.
Four other sources also told CNN that U.S. intelligence assessments show Iran’s military reconstruction is progressing much faster than initially estimated. According to these sources, the replacement of missile bases, launchers, and production capacity for key weapons systems targeted during the recent conflict is continuing, and if attacks resume, Tehran could still pose a serious threat to U.S. regional allies.
These assessments have also raised questions about claims regarding the long-term weakening of the Islamic Republic’s military capabilities following the U.S. and Israeli attacks.
At the same time, Reuters reported on Thursday, citing “two senior Iranian sources familiar with the negotiations,” that Mojtaba Khamenei instructed Iranian officials that enriched uranium stockpiles must not leave Iran an issue considered one of the main demands of the U.S. and Israel in nuclear and ceasefire negotiations.
The United States and Israel are seeking the transfer of highly enriched uranium stockpiles to another country in order to prevent the Islamic Republic from potentially acquiring nuclear weapons. However, according to the report, Tehran has rejected this demand and considers keeping these materials inside Iran a national security “red line.”
Iranian officials’ insistence on continuing previous policies comes as CNN reports that U.S. intelligence estimates suggest Iran could fully restore its drone strike capabilities within six months, although the time required to rebuild other sectors of the weapons industry is assessed differently.
A U.S. official said in this regard: “The Iranians are ahead of every timeline that the U.S. intelligence community had predicted for rebuilding their military capabilities.”
Drone attacks are among the main concerns of U.S. regional allies. If hostilities resume, the Islamic Republic could compensate for the damage to its missile capabilities by increasing its use of drones and continue targeting Israel and Gulf countries.
Donald Trump has also repeatedly threatened that if negotiations to end the war fail, military operations against Iran would resume. On Tuesday, he publicly stated that he had been only “one hour” away from deciding to restart the bombing of Iran.
Writer:Salima Aryaei
