Bab el-Mandeb, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, is considered one of the most important maritime transport routes in the world.
This strait is the main route for transporting oil from the Gulf countries to Europe through the Suez Canal, and it plays a key role in linking the economies of Asia and Europe.
According to data, about 10% of global trade passes through this route, and in 2024 alone, more than 4 billion barrels of oil and petroleum products passed through it.
The importance of this passage has doubled in the current circumstances, as the Strait of Hormuz, another vital energy route, is facing disruptions or limitations. In such conditions, many oil-producing countries, especially Saudi Arabia, have increased their exports via the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb. This shift has made this strait one of the main energy arteries of the world.
If Bab el-Mandeb were also closed, the consequences could be very severe. Analysis shows that if both Bab el-Mandeb and Hormuz were closed simultaneously, about a quarter of global oil and gas supply would be disrupted, a figure that could deliver a major shock to energy markets and drive prices significantly higher.
In addition to energy, trade in goods would also be severely affected. This route is one of the main pathways for container goods from Asia, particularly China and India, to Europe.
The closure of this route would force ships to take a longer path around the Cape of Good Hope in southern Africa, a route that significantly increases transportation time and costs, disrupting global supply chains.
These disruptions could lead to higher prices for goods worldwide, as transportation and insurance costs rise.
Moreover, delays in the delivery of goods could create crises in industries dependent on global supply chains. Countries that rely on imports of energy and goods, particularly in Europe and the U.S., would be most affected.
The potential closure of Bab el-Mandeb would not only be a regional crisis but also a global shock. This strait is one of the key links in the international trade network, and any disruption in it could lead to higher energy prices, global inflation, supply chain disruptions, and even economic recessions in some countries.
For this reason, analysts believe that the security of this maritime passage is crucial for the stability of the global economy, and any escalation of tensions in the area could have consequences beyond the Middle East region.
